Population Dynamics and Infectious Diseases in Asia
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Comparison of the projected number of gestating adults under A1fi a — c and B1 d — f emission scenarios for mid-century —65 and end of century —99 compared to model simulations for present conditions — for Atlanta, GA a and d , Chicago, IL b and e , and Lubbock, TX c and f. For example, a bimodal distribution of the total number of recovered humans existed as the arrival day changed. In general, if the infected mosquitoes arrived as the susceptible mosquito population was increasing, then the epidemic would be larger than if the mosquito population was decreasing.
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Also, epidemic outbreaks were larger when the mosquito population was larger and stable. Compared to the disease model with present temperatures, the season lengths when dengue outbreaks could occur were greater. However, the outbreaks that occurred under projected conditions infected a smaller portion of the human population than outbreaks under current temperatures. Higher mid-summer temperatures increase Asian tiger mosquito mortality, which in turn decreases the vector lifespan and limits the extrinsic incubation of dengue.
The x -axis is the start date of an outbreak and the y -axis is the potential outbreak size. The number of recovered humans was chosen as a surrogate for outbreak size.
For these simulations, the total human population was people. The Asian tiger mosquito is an important mosquito species of both epidemiological and ecological importance. Therefore, projected climate change will likely change the distribution and abundance of this species through time and space. Additionally, understanding how climate change alters the ecology of this species is critical to understanding how vector-borne infectious diseases such as dengue will shift with chaining climates Randolph Our initial hypotheses about expanding temporal seasons and population sizes demonstrate the difficulty of predicting the future.
While our predictions were correct for Chicago, IL, an unexpected shift occurred in Atlanta, GA and Lubbock, TX where the dengue seasons increased in length, but peak population sizes decreased and peak numbers shifted to a spring and fall peak rather than a summer peak.
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The impactions of climate change on the Asian tiger mosquito also impacted the dynamics of dengue in an unpredicted, but similar fashion. This finding supports the general hypothesis that climate change will shift, rather than expand the spatial range of some diseases Lafferty a. This hypothesis is not without controversy, but it demonstrates the profoundly different results that can occur by studying different spatial scales e.
Our initial assessment about the potential impact of climate change on dengue and its vector, the Asian tiger mosquito, raises several additional questions for future research. First, will the patterns observed in the three test case cities hold on a broader geographic scale?
The Impact of Population Growth on the Epidemiology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases
Second, will the Asian tiger mosquito adapt to hotter summer peak temperatures? If so, how will this impact the potential for dengue outbreaks? Even if the Asian tiger mosquito adapts to live through hotter summer, the risk for dengue may not increase because the individual's lifespan may still be shorter than the virus's extrinsic incubation period within the mosquitoes. The third question that deserves attention is, how might climate change alter competition with other Aedes spp.? Currently, the Asian tiger mosquito outcompetes the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti , but will this still occur in future climate situations?
Additionally, what if another mosquito Aedes spp. The other major component of climate change that will directly impact mosquito population dynamics is precipitation. Although water e. For example, the Asian tiger mosquito breeds in trees and containers, and this habitat size an important component of the carrying capacity for mosquito species depends upon not only precipitation, but also evaporation.
To complicate matters further, the way in which changes in precipitation as a consequence of climate change will translate into changes in mosquito habitat are unclear. Not only will the amount of precipitation likely change, but the frequencies and patterns of precipitation will likely change as well.
These changes will interact with changes in temperature to impact both evaporation and relative humidity. However, studies directly assessing the impacts of these aspects of moisture availability on various mosquito life history characteristics are lacking. Although accounting for these factors will greatly increase the complexity of future modeling efforts e. Among the issues considered are the ways in which changes in our natural and built environment, social and economic pressures, shifting policies and patterns of collaboration in responding to disease impact upon our approach to and success in containing serious threats.
AB - Drawing on a range of disciplinary perspectives, the book contains analyses rooted in the social, physical and biological sciences as well as works which span these fields. Cultivating the market: mobility, labour and sexual exchange in north-west Laos Chris Lyttleton. Department of Anthropology.
Abstract Drawing on a range of disciplinary perspectives, the book contains analyses rooted in the social, physical and biological sciences as well as works which span these fields. Fingerprint Laos. An entomological marker of malaria transmission is the entomological inoculation rate EIR. Currently dengue, a virus transmitted through Aedes mosquitoes, threatens a half-billion people globally [ 8 ]. Unlike yellow fever, where sylvatic forest mosquito species and non-human primate reservoirs play a critical role in the transmission, dengue only requires humans, a fact that explains its rapid spread in populated urban areas [ 9 ].
Dengue incidence has increased dramatically in the Americas, and recent introductions of chikungunya and Zika have resulted in serious epidemics in these regions [ 10 , 11 ].
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Other VBDs, such as American trypanosomiasis Chagas disease , leishmaniasis, and filariasis, have affected hundreds of millions of people globally [ 12 ]. The United Nations projects that 2. This rapid and increasing urbanization has posed a great challenge to nations, especially those less developed [ 14 ]. Urbanization has had an impact on the epidemiological pattern of infectious diseases. The main factors are urban sprawl into forested areas, overcrowding, and precarious urban infrastructures and housing in urban areas of developing countries.
The absence of necessary investments in infrastructure in these countries poses a serious threat to human health, including the re- emergence and adaptation of infectious agents in urban areas such as dengue in South East Asia or, Chagas in Latin America in areas where poor housing is hindering effective vector control [ 14 , 15 , 16 ]. Basic knowledge about VBD transmission includes population susceptibility, vectorial capacity, and interaction of infectious agents. The understanding of VBD transmission and persistence is essential for establishing effective prevention and control interventions.
Of similar importance is to know key aspects of introduction, maintenance, and spread of VBDs, as well as the role of environmental and climate factors, the urbanization process, socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics and mobility [ 2 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 ]. This scoping review evaluated the current state of knowledge on transmission dynamics, vectorial capacity, and co-infection regarding VBDs in urban areas from to , to identify research gaps and implications for public health policy and practice.
By the end of the third round, the present topic—the impact of transmission dynamics, vectorial capacity, and co-infections on the burden of vector-borne diseases in urban areas—had obtained the mean rating of 3. It was therefore among six top rated topics taken forward for research carried out by the consortium groups.
Additional articles were identified by screening the references of papers that met our inclusion criteria.
The literature search was undertaken from August to September We used Mendeley and Endnote software to manage references and remove duplicates. We included all articles and reports published in peer-reviewed journals or grey literature written in English, French, Portuguese, Spanish, German, or Italian and published between and We excluded: articles focused on clinical or laboratory characteristics, vector prevalence or seroprevalence only; reviews; conference papers; articles without research data; articles not addressing human disease; articles reporting water-borne diseases or diseases without insect vector; studies conducted in rural areas; and interventional studies, such as mass drug administration, intermittent preventive treatment, and vector control programs.
We performed a pilot round of study selection to evaluate consistency in the application of the above criteria and discuss discrepancies with 20 randomly selected references.
After completing full-text screening for articles, an additional step was introduced to retain references that combined at least two elements of the search strategy: transmission dynamics and vectorial capacity or transmission dynamics and co-infection. This last step was done manually by the reviewers. Similarly, the methodological and quality aspects of each study were evaluated using the modified Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool MMAT; for description of qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods studies [ 22 ] and parts of the TIDieR Template for Intervention Description and Replication checklist [ 23 ].
Summary tables and graphs were produced. Any remaining difficulties were resolved in a discussion with the remaining two participants. Subsequently, the remaining 45 articles were summarised with quality assessed by the same three contributors and results recorded in the extraction grid. The search strategy initially identified records. After removing duplicates and articles published before , we screened articles by title and abstract and retrieved of them. Two studies reported on co-infections, one on multiple Plamodium falciparum strains, the other on combined malaria, helminth, and human immunodeficiency virus HIV infection in pregnant women.
Only one study was funded through pharmaceutical companies, but did not involve clinical trials hence was not excluded ; some studies had several funding sources Fig. We transferred information for the 50 included studies into an extraction grid. All studies were descriptive. We applied the MMAT to evaluate study quality [ 22 ]. Given the absence of any intervention studies, the TIDieR tool was only applicable to very limited aspects of the included studies.
Due to the limited added benefit, it was therefore agreed to not consider TIDieR further in the extraction. Dengue research was identified mostly in the Americas and Asia. A large number of studies also addressed asymptomatic infection as a factor related to the spread of dengue virus infection, the climatic variation in relation to vector abundance, and the role of socioeconomic conditions.